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TTR Weather Update

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Fair skies and temperatures within a few degrees of early to mid-June normals are expected across South Central Texas for the next several days. There are low chances of showers and thunderstorms for the Highway 281 corridor and Val Verde County areas on Friday, and then for areas along and east of I-35 including the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads area Sunday through Tuesday.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 90. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 90. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Tuesday Night And Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.

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Situation Awareness Brief 060817-02

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
Issued by National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel
out to 60 nautical miles.
 
Seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3
of the waves...along with occasional height of the average highest
10 percent of the waves. 
 
GMZ200-090515-
1124 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...
Surface high pressure moving east of the region will maintain a 
persistent generally weak daytime onshore flow...strengthening to
moderate overnight. Onshore flow will continue and become slightly
stronger through the weekend as pressures lower over the Southern
Plains. Upper riding forming over the region over the next several
days will maintain generally dry conditions...very low chances for
an isolated early day shower or storm.

$$

GMZ235-090515-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
1124 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.REST OF TODAY...East wind up to 5 knots becoming southeast in
the afternoon. Bays smooth. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. 
.FRIDAY...Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly
choppy to occasionally choppy. 
.SATURDAY...Southeast wind around 10 knots. Bays slightly choppy.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly
choppy to occasionally choppy. 
.SUNDAY...Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to
occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly
choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. 
.MONDAY...Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to
occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy. A
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

$$FIRE WEATHER

 

Situation Awareness Brief 060817-10

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for South Central Texas
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Humidities will increase today as southerly low level winds
return. There could be a few areas that receive a wetting rain,
with the Hill Country having the best chance. Isolated to
scattered storms will be more common over Northwest Texas, and
they will be weakening as the move south toward South Central
Texas. Rain chances decrease again over the weekend, but
humidities will continue to gradually climb each day. Sunday
through Tuesday, there could be isolated to scattered showers and
storms mainly along and east of I-35. Rain chances decrease again
by Tuesday night with hot and humid days expected in the middle to
latter part of next week.

Lavaca-
Including the cities of Karnes City, Cuero, and Halletsville
644 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Fri          

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       PCldy        
Chance precip (%)     10           10           10           
Precip Type           NONE         NONE         tstms        
Temp (24h trend)      92 (-1)      69 (-1)      91           
RH % (24h trend)      37 (+8)      92 (-8)      41           
20ftWnd-AM(MPH)       NE  5                     S  8         
20ftWnd-PM(MPH)       E  5         SE  6        SE  9        
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)    7719                      5659         
Transport wnd (MPH)   NE  5                     SE 13        
CWR                   0            0            0            
LAL                   1            1            2            
Haines Index          3            3            3            

Remarks...None.

Situation Awareness Brief 060817-11 Situation Awareness Brief 060817-12

TTR Weather Update for COLORADO, JACKSON, and WHARTON Counties from National Weather Service Houston Galveston.

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A slow moving upper level low will once again produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across Southeast Texas. A few of the stronger storms could produce locally heavy rain. Soil moisture has increased significantly and if heavy rain develops, much of the rain could run off and cause flooding issues.

There will probably be two periods of showers and thunderstorms today. The first will mainly affect areas near the coast this morning with locally heavy rain affecting Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties with a quick 1 to 3 inches of rain.

The second period of precipitation will come this afternoon once temperatures warm into the mid 80’s and the upper low nears the region. Showers and storms will likely redevelop around 2 PM and rapidly expand in coverage. Some of the rain will again be locally heavy. In addition, some of the storms could briefly pulse to severe limits and produce damaging winds. Rainfall totals will average between a half inch and 1.50 inches with locally higher amounts this afternoon.

Jun5_2017_AM-3 Jun5_2017_AM-2 Jun5_2017_AM-1

Hazards: Locally heavy rain

Damaging winds

Brief funnel clouds

Timing; Early this morning, a bit of a break, and then a second round this afternoon/evening.

Confidence: Rain – High

Amounts – Low

Where – Low

Resources

NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston
Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location): https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=hgx&TypeDefault=graphical
West Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage: www.weather.gov/wgrfc
AHPS Webpage: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

Charles Roeseler and Paul Lewis
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX

TTR Weekend Weather Update for Colorado, Jackson, and Wharton Counties from the National Weather Service

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An unsettled weather (forecast) pattern is beginning to unfold over the Memorial Day holiday weekend. A weakening cold frontal boundary may stall somewhere over the region late Sunday or early Monday. This may provide the focus, within a warm and muggy atmosphere, to provide frequent periods of showers and thunderstorms.

MMDay17

Overview

The late Sunday through Memorial Day weather pattern of slow-moving clusters of rain and/of storm activity will introduce the threat for both high rainfall rates leading to flooding or damaging thunderstorm winds.
Confidence in Monday rainfall is increasing with lower confidence in Tuesday and Wednesday’s rainfall. Tuesday and Wednesday’s rainfall will be highly dependent upon Monday’s activity.

Resources

NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston
Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location): https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=hgx&TypeDefault=graphical
West Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage: www.weather.gov/wgrfc
AHPS Webpage: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

Patrick Blood and Charles Roeseler
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX

Slight Risk of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Saturday into Early Sunday Morning; Marginal Threat Late Sunday Morning into Tuesday

No Comments Local News

Area of Concern: (See graphic)

All of South Central Texas, with greatest potential along and west of I-35.

Severe_Threat_Saturday

Threats & Impacts:

Hail: Up to golf ball size (1.75 inches in diameter)

Winds: Straight line wind gusts over 60 mph

Rainfall: 1-3 inches with isolated 4-5″ amounts possible through Tuesday Morning.

Timing and Overview:

Although warm air aloft (or the “cap”) has prevented showers and thunderstorms from developing the last several days, a cold front will approach the region overnight and move through slowly during the afternoon and evening to allow for at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the afternoon and evening storms, but this threat should decrease as the locally heavy rainfall threat increases late in the evening and overnight hours. Confidence in flooding impacts has decreased because of the lack of rainfall the region has received over the last few weeks and model uncertainties, but isolated instances of flash flooding outside of the typical low water crossings, small creeks, and streams may occur for a few spots that could receive 4-5 inches of rain.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Tuesday when a stronger front is forecast to move through the region. The threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall on Sunday is expected to be lower than on Saturday, but locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain could have an increased flash flood threat. Thus, please continue to remain alert over the weekend and into early next week as this period of active weather continues.

Confidence:

Low to Moderate

Additional Information Resources:
NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage: https://www.weather.gov/sanantonio
Storm Prediction Center: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Sincerely,
Larry Hopper, Cory Van Pelt, and Nick Hampshire
NWS Austin / San Antonio

TTR Weather Update for COLORADO, JACKSON, and WHARTON Counties from National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

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A slow moving frontal boundary will move into northern parts of southeast Texas Saturday afternoon. It will eventually stall near the coast Sunday and then meander about the region through Tuesday. This feature combined with a series of upper-level disturbances moving overhead will provide chances of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

Impacts
The majority of computer models are indicating that most locations should receive just beneficial rainfall through the weekend – generally less than 1.5 inches (and even less than that along the beaches). That being said, history has shown that slow moving or stalled boundaries like this during May can sometimes pose a localized heavy rainfall threat that we will need to keep an eye on for potential flash flooding.

Locations
We will begin focusing on areas generally north and northwest of Highway 59 Saturday evening through Sunday morning.  Beyond that, and through Tuesday, forecasts and hazards will be highly dependent where the surface boundary is situated. This likely will be too difficult to forecast with much accuracy beyond 12- 24 hours (and possibly earlier).

Bottom Line
There is considerable forecast uncertainty at this point.  So enjoy your weekend, but keep up with the latest weather forecasts.

Resources
Brian Kyle and Wendy Wong
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX
Twitter: @NWSHouston
Facebook: NWSHouston