March 31, 2017 • No Comments • Local News

…Threat For Severe Weather Exists Saturday Night & Sunday…

Briefing:

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of South Texas under a risk of severe weather for the second half of the weekend.
Overall, this is not a clear-cut situation and certainty in storm development is not currently high. The graphical map (below) of the severe weather

threat is likely to change some between now and Sunday morning, with the current map highlighting a reasonable worst-case scenario.

Here is our latest forecast:

Saturday Night:

• Few showers may develop across the Coastal Plains, mainly after midnight.
  • If any of the showers manage to develop into thunderstorms, they may become strong to severe.
• Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop by late in the night near the Rio Grande.
  • Any of these storms will also have the potential to become strong to severe.

Sunday:

• The best chances of thunderstorms will be in the morning and across the Victoria area and N Coastal Bend.
• Farther south and west across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country, isolated thunderstorms may develop.
• Any storms that develop across the region Sunday morning will have the potential to become strong to severe.
• The storm threat should greatly diminish by midday/afternoon, although an isolated storm threat will persist across the N Coastal Bend/Victoria into the afternoon.

Potential South Texas Impacts:

Tornadoes:  Possible across primarily the Coastal Plains to Victoria area.

Winds:  Gusts up to 70 mph possible with severe storms.
Hail:  Large hail likely if severe storms develop. Golf-ball size or larger not out of the question.
Rainfall:  Any storms that develop should be relatively fast moving and rainfall amounts should average less than an inch.

Additional Information Resources:

NWS Corpus Christi Webpage:  www.weather.gov/corpuschristi 
Storm Prediction Center:  www.spc.noaa.gov/
Online Severe Weather Reporting:  https://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=crp

Sincerely,
Rob Hart
Forecaster
NWS Corpus Christi, TX

March 31, 2017 • No Comments • Local News

Other Possibilities: Severe weather threat could be limited due to capping and drier air aloft. Moisture return may not be a strong as forecast data shows limiting severe weather and heavy rainfall. Highest moisture return shifts east and highest threat of severe weather and flooding occurs over east Texas into Louisiana. These factors lead to lower forecast confidence but consistency in  future forecast model data could increase confidence in most likely scenario above.

NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston

AHPS Webpage: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

Scott Overpeck & Sean Luchs
NWS Houston/Galveston

March 31, 2017 • No Comments • Local News

The Flood Warning continues for the Guadalupe River near Bloomington affecting Calhoun, Refugio, and Victoria Counties. Recent rainfall upstream and over the area will cause the aforementioned river to rise above flood stage within the next few days.

Hazardous Weather Outlook:

Another storm system is expected to bring active weather, including strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to south central Texas this weekend. On Saturday, areas west of a Llano to Carrizo Springs can expect the best chance for severe weather. For the overnight hours into Sunday morning, the active weather will spread east across the remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. For Sunday afternoon, the most active weather is expected to remain east of the Interstate 35 corridor. The main severe weather concern will be large hail and damaging winds. However, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. In addition, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches could bring the potential for localized flooding, especially across those areas that had heavy rains earlier in the week.

Strong to severe thunderstorms returns to the forecast for the weekend. Beginning late Saturday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Rio Grande Plains, Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country capable of producing one inch or larger diameter hail and damaging straight line winds.

Storms from overnight Saturday night will push eastward across South Central Texas and move into east Texas during the day on Sunday. Areas along and east of the I-35 corridor could see strong thunderstorms in the morning and become more widespread and severe as the storms continue to push east into the afternoon.

Another storm system will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rains are possible. Otherwise, fair weather and above normal temperatures are expected for the next several days.

Now, here’s your TTR Weekend Weather from NWS Austin – San Antonio:

March 28, 2017 • No Comments • Local News

…Continued Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday Morning….

Timing and Overview:

Not much has changed since this morning in terms of areas of concern for the potential of strong to possibly severe thunderstorm activity Wednesday morning. While there could be an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat across the Brush Country and Southern Coastal Bend we continue to be the most concerned about areas across the Northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. See the image below with our thinking for the timing of the potential storms.
South Texas Impacts:
Tornadoes: Isolated.
Winds: Damaging straight-line winds of 55 to 60 mph are possible.
Hail: Generally 1 inch in diameter or smaller.
Rainfall: Locally heavy rainfall which may contribute to isolated flooding over low-lying areas.

Additional Information Resources:
NWS Corpus Christi Webpage: www.weather.gov/corpuschristi
Storm Prediction Center: www.spc.noaa.gov/
Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=crp

Sincerely,
Greg Heavener
NWS Corpus Christi, TX