Bottom Line: Potential for all 3 severe weather threats – tornadoes, damaging winds and hail on Sunday for all of SE Texas. Heavy rainfall/flooding potential mainly north of I-10. Continue to monitor forecast updates for more precise timing/location of threats for this likely scenario.
Other Possibilities: Severe weather threat could be limited due to capping and drier air aloft. Moisture return may not be a strong as forecast data shows limiting severe weather and heavy rainfall. Highest moisture return shifts east and highest threat of severe weather and flooding occurs over east Texas into Louisiana. These factors lead to lower forecast confidence but consistency in future forecast model data could increase confidence in most likely scenario above.
NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston
AHPS Webpage: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx
Scott Overpeck & Sean Luchs