A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday. Unseasonably cold temperatures will enter the area and lows Tuesday and Wednesday morning could fall into the lower 20’s.
A strong cold front will cross the area on Sunday and usher in the coldest air of the season. There will be a brief period of freezing drizzle possible Sunday night but the latest guidance suggests that the moisture will exit prior to the coldest air arriving. However, any residual moisture on exposed surfaces will freeze. This will be a prolonged cold weather outbreak. Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall near to or below freezing by Monday morning and fall below freezing each night through Friday morning.
Very cold temperatures with lows falling into the lower 20’s north of I-10 Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. A Hard Freeze Warning may be required for areas north of I-10 on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Wind Chill values could fall below 13 degrees on Tuesday morning, mainly north of I-10 and east of I-45. A Wind Chill Advisory may be required. Persons displaced by Harvey could be living in damaged housing or other sub-standard housing and will be vulnerable to the cold temperatures.
Strong winds near the coast in the wake of the front may require a Wind Advisory Sunday night into Monday. North to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts will be possible.
Alternate Possibilities
Freezing drizzle could develop Sunday night if freezing temperatures arrive earlier than expected. Accumulations, if any, would be extremely light.
The Canadian model brings a bout of precipitation through the region Monday night into Tuesday. No other model shows this and the forecast is based on the drier GFS and European models.
Confidence: High
No graphics attached since this is primarily a temperature forecast.
Isolated light rain showers will continue today across most of the region. Thursday will see a brief break in the rain, but it returns Friday confined to our southern and southeastern counties. Shower coverage will increase once again this weekend as another strong cold front moves through the region on Sunday. Temperatures will remain well below normal for the entire forecast period, with Wednesday being the coolest with highs in the upper 30s and 40s and Saturday being the warmest with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Cloud cover should generally keep nighttime temperatures above freezing. There is a slight chance of some freezing rain mixed with the rain for New Year’s Evening into New Year’s day north of a Langtry to San Antonio to Giddings line.
Today: Colder. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the lower 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph.
Tonight: Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday: Cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 5 mph.
Friday: Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid 50s. East winds 5 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
Saturday And Saturday Night: Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Highs in the lower 60s. Lows in the upper 40s.
Sunday: Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid 50s.
Sunday Night: Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s.
New Years Day: Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid 40s.
Monday Night And Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. Wind chill readings 25 to 30.
As the atmosphere cools, look for a little sleet and/or a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain this morning, then see a chance for snow to mix back with rain tonight before precipitation comes to an end completely. With the warm ground temperatures, no impacts are expected.
Additionally, temperatures will be colder tonight. Look for a freeze warning later today once the southern edge of where a warning will be needed is firmed up.
Overview
We’ve already seen reports of sleet mixed with rain far south as Jersey Village, near Barker reservoir, and even in Sugar Land this morning, in addition to reports near College Station as early as last night. Because surfaces are so warm, anything frozen should melt on impact. At the very worst, if bridges and elevated roads stay wet enough for long enough, and cool quickly enough, some minor impacts there may manifest. But this is a very conditional risk, as you can probably tell from the previous sentence.
Expect potential for a mix into the morning hours, but we’ll eventually get warm enough to limit or eliminate any mix, until we begin cooling tonight. By then, the atmosphere aloft will have cooled enough to prevent any sleet, but some snow may mix in, but that colder air is also drier, and it will be a balancing act between being cold enough for snow and having enough moisture. Because of this, there may actually be a better chance of snow towards the coast rather than farther north!
Freezing temperatures are likely north of Houston for up to 8 hours far to the north in Houston County. Houston the city will likely stay above freezing, but some more rural northern suburbs may briefly reach 32° before sunrise. Because of the uncertainty, a freeze warning has not been hammered out yet, but one should be expected later today.
Skies will be mostly sunny for the next five days with slightly above normal temperatures expected and pleasant conditions.
Tonight: Colder, clear. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Thanksgiving Day: Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. North winds 5 mph.
Thursday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 5 mph before midnight becoming light and variable.
Friday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Through Sunday Night: Clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s.
Monday Through Tuesday: Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for South Central Texas
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
323 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017
.DISCUSSION...
With yesterday`s cold front passage, continued 15-20 mph north
winds have been observed throughout the overnight hours across the
region. Gusts up to 30 mph have also been noted thus far. These
winds will continue through the morning hours before beginning to
subside to 10-15 mph by the noontime hour and further subsiding this
evening. Min RH values are expected to drop into the mid to lower
20 percent range on the Plateau and Hill Country this afternoon,
however, they will not begin to drop into these ranges until the
afternoon hours. Therefore, only a very brief window of elevated
fire weather conditions is expected today, right around noon and
an hour or two after, as RH values drop below 30 percent and winds
begin to subside below 15 mph.
While dry conditions are expected to prevail through the next
several days, winds are expected to be much lighter and therefore
no elevated fire concerns are expected through the weekend.
Karnes-De Witt-Lavaca-
Including the cities of Karnes City, Cuero, and Halletsville
323 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017
Today Tonight Thanksgiving Day
Cloud cover MClear Clear Clear
Chance precip (%) 0 0 0
Precip Type NONE NONE NONE
Temp (24h trend) 65 (-13) 35 (-19) 69
RH % (24h trend) 31 (-11) 77 (-23) 20
20ftWnd-AM(MPH) N 14 N 5
20ftWnd-PM(MPH) N 11 N 8 N 5
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 3697 3322
Transport wnd (MPH) N 13 N 6
CWR 0 0 0
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 4 4
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
South winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. A 20 percent chance of rain showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds 5 to
15 mph.
$$
Happy Thanksgiving and have a great weekend!
Texas Thunder Radio
