Here is a brief update regarding severe thunderstorm potential for the region on Friday.
Overview
There have been no major changes since the last briefing yesterday afternoon. A line of thunderstorms will move across the region Friday afternoon and evening, with some of these thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather for parts of the region. While all of Southeast Texas is at risk for experiencing strong to severe thunderstorms, best chances appear to be north of a Brenham to Cleveland line. These thunderstorms will clear the region by early Saturday morning, with no hazardous weather anticipated this weekend.
Main Hazards (in order of likelihood)
Damaging winds
An isolated tornado or two
Locally heavy rain (overall flood threat will be low as storms will move quickly)
If you happen to look at the SPC day 3 severe weather outlook, you will notice a large portion of SE Texas under a slight risk for severe weather. Based on new forecast data, here are some of our thoughts on the severe weather potential.
Bottom Line: Severe weather threat possible but may be north of Houston, from a Brenham to Cleveland line northward. Main threats: damaging straight line winds, tornadoes. Minor threat for hail. Flood potential looks low since storms will be moving quickly.
Timing: 12-3PM for areas from College Station to Columbus. 3PM-7PM for areas between Crockett and Houston.
What kind of storms? Likely a squall line which will be more intense/severe north of Houston but still possible for a weaker portion of the line to extend southward towards the coastal counties.
This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas and the Middle Texas Coastal Waters:
Today and Tonight, There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along Mustang and Padre Islands. Patchy fog will be possible tonight across the eastern half of the area. Saturday through Thursday A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on Saturday along Padre and Mustang Islands. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.
Flood Warning continues for Guadalupe River Near Bloomington affecting Calhoun, Refugio and Victoria Counties:
The Flood Warning continues for the Guadalupe River Near Bloomington until late Saturday night or until the warning is canceled.
At 9:00 AM Friday the stage was 23.4 feet.
Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
At 24.0 feet Moderate lowland flooding occurs, with the river reaching well into the flood plain. Any oil tank batteries, pump jacks, and secondary roads near the river may be flooded.
Today, the region will start out cloudy this morning but should see some breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild with highs mainly in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the area. Expect south winds 12-20 mph. A persistent weather pattern will keep hold of South Central Texas through the early part of next week. Morning clouds followed by partly cloudy afternoon skies can be expected. Otherwise expected overnight lows in upper 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s in the Hill Country to the 80s elsewhere.
Today
Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy before midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night And Monday
Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 80s.
River Flood Warnings Continue for:
Guadalupe River Near Bloomington, affecting Calhoun, Refugio and Victoria Counties.
Comal River At New Braunfels, affecting Comal and Guadalupe Counties.
Guadalupe River At Hwy 123 BR at Seguin affecting Guadalupe County.
For the latest river stages and information visit texasthunderradio.com/river/
We will be keeping our eye on the potential for some locally heavy rain Saturday afternoon and night. At this time, the majority of computer model guidance suggests the higher rainfall amounts will mostly be confined offshore. However, those that live generally along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor should keep up with the latest forecasts. Just minor forecast changes could shift this axis further inland.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday through Saturday night, then fair weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures Friday and Saturday turn below normal on Sunday in the wake of a cold frontal passage, then rise to near normal Monday and Tuesday.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas:
Today And Tonight. Some storms this afternoon and early evening may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and small hail.
Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT… Rainfall observers are encouraged to submit rainfall reports.
Now, here’s your TTR Weekend Weather Forecast:
Tonight:
Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Saturday:
Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Saturday Night:
Cooler. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. East winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.
Sunday:
Cooler, cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday Night And Monday:
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70.
