…Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Sunday Night…

…Strong Storms Possible Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night…

Timing and Area of Concern:

• Heavy Rainfall:  Primarily near and east of Interstate 35 and I-37 Sunday Night, including Austin metro.
• Strong to Severe Storms:  Hill Country and along and east of I-35 Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night.

Threats & Impacts:

Rainfall:  1-2 inches with isolated amounts over 4 inches near and east of I-35 and I-37, including the Austin metro area. Around 1 inch over the San Antonio metro area is expected. Less than 1 inch farther west of I-35 and I-37. Please reference overview and confidence sections below for uncertainty.

• Some locations could experience minor flooding with flood waters capable of causing small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches to become swollen and overflow in a few places. Flood waters may prompt brief closures of low water crossings. Some river points along the Lower Guadalupe River could experience minor flooding. Other mainstem river basins east of I-35 in South Central Texas could see points in action stage.

Hail: Up to 1 inch in diameter

Winds: Up to 60 mph

Overview:

A strong upper level disturbance will move across the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Showers will form Sunday morning with scattered thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon. The showers and storms will become more widespread Sunday evening from the eastern Hill Country through the I-35 corridor and then transition east of I-35 overnight Sunday into Monday. The greatest potential for heavy rainfall looks to occur near and east of I-35 and I-37 where 1-2 inches of rain with isolated amounts over 4 inches will be possible. The threat for heavy rainfall will move east into Southeast and East Texas Monday morning.

There will also be be a threat some storms could become strong to marginally severe Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Any of these storms will be capable of producing small hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts.

Confidence:

Low to moderate on exact placement of heavy rainfall corridor across Texas. There is still some uncertainty that heavier rainfall amounts could be pulled into and just west of the I-35 corridor, including the cities of San Antonio and Austin. Please monitor forecasts closely through the holiday weekend for any potential westward shift in heavier rainfall into the I-35 corridor and eastern Hill Country.