Updated 12/2/16 at 7:43am.
Confidence increasing for a large flood event across the region.
Changes:
1. Forecast rainfall amounts of widespread 2-4 inches with isolated 8-10 inches. Heavy rains mainly north Saturday shifting south Sunday.
2. Severe thunderstorm threat mainly near the coast Saturday.
3. Coastal Flood Advisory in Effect: Forecast tide levels 3.5 to near 4 feet during high tide Friday evening and Saturday.
Synopsis:
A slow moving strong upper level low coupled with a coastal trough of low pressure will produce widespread rain with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Storms may form bands and train over the same areas.
When:
Friday night through Monday morning with the bulk of the heaviest rain mainly north Friday night and Saturday shifting southward Saturday night and Sunday through through Monday afternoon.
Hazards:
Friday and Saturday: Locally heavy rainfall and lightning mainly north of a Columbus to Conroe to Livingston line. Thunderstorms with Isolated tornadoes possible near the coast beginning Saturday morning. Coastal flooding, elevated tide levels, enhanced currents and rip currents possible.
Saturday night through Monday: Heavy rainfall threat still high and shifting southward and may see clusters/bands of slower moving storms, frequent lightning. Severe threat (tornadoes/damaging winds) returns Sunday night/Monday morning near the coast.
Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally heavier totals of 8 to 10 inches inches possible. Heavy rainfall Saturday will likely saturate the soils and additional heavy rainfall Saturday night through A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued this afternoon.
Tides:
Moderate easterly flow will continue through early Saturday. Tides will become elevated and some minor coastal flooding is possible Friday night and again Saturday night along the Bolivar peninsula. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
Kent Prochazka & Melissa Huffman
National Weather Service
Houston/Galveston
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