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TTR Weather Update for COLORADO, JACKSON, and WHARTON Counties from National Weather Service Houston Galveston.

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A slow moving upper level low will once again produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across Southeast Texas. A few of the stronger storms could produce locally heavy rain. Soil moisture has increased significantly and if heavy rain develops, much of the rain could run off and cause flooding issues.

There will probably be two periods of showers and thunderstorms today. The first will mainly affect areas near the coast this morning with locally heavy rain affecting Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties with a quick 1 to 3 inches of rain.

The second period of precipitation will come this afternoon once temperatures warm into the mid 80’s and the upper low nears the region. Showers and storms will likely redevelop around 2 PM and rapidly expand in coverage. Some of the rain will again be locally heavy. In addition, some of the storms could briefly pulse to severe limits and produce damaging winds. Rainfall totals will average between a half inch and 1.50 inches with locally higher amounts this afternoon.

Jun5_2017_AM-3 Jun5_2017_AM-2 Jun5_2017_AM-1

Hazards: Locally heavy rain

Damaging winds

Brief funnel clouds

Timing; Early this morning, a bit of a break, and then a second round this afternoon/evening.

Confidence: Rain – High

Amounts – Low

Where – Low

Resources

NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston
Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location): https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=hgx&TypeDefault=graphical
West Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage: www.weather.gov/wgrfc
AHPS Webpage: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

Charles Roeseler and Paul Lewis
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX

TTR Weekend Weather Update for Colorado, Jackson, and Wharton Counties from the National Weather Service

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An unsettled weather (forecast) pattern is beginning to unfold over the Memorial Day holiday weekend. A weakening cold frontal boundary may stall somewhere over the region late Sunday or early Monday. This may provide the focus, within a warm and muggy atmosphere, to provide frequent periods of showers and thunderstorms.

MMDay17

Overview

The late Sunday through Memorial Day weather pattern of slow-moving clusters of rain and/of storm activity will introduce the threat for both high rainfall rates leading to flooding or damaging thunderstorm winds.
Confidence in Monday rainfall is increasing with lower confidence in Tuesday and Wednesday’s rainfall. Tuesday and Wednesday’s rainfall will be highly dependent upon Monday’s activity.

Resources

NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston
Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location): https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=hgx&TypeDefault=graphical
West Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage: www.weather.gov/wgrfc
AHPS Webpage: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

Patrick Blood and Charles Roeseler
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX

Slight Risk of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Saturday into Early Sunday Morning; Marginal Threat Late Sunday Morning into Tuesday

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Area of Concern: (See graphic)

All of South Central Texas, with greatest potential along and west of I-35.

Severe_Threat_Saturday

Threats & Impacts:

Hail: Up to golf ball size (1.75 inches in diameter)

Winds: Straight line wind gusts over 60 mph

Rainfall: 1-3 inches with isolated 4-5″ amounts possible through Tuesday Morning.

Timing and Overview:

Although warm air aloft (or the “cap”) has prevented showers and thunderstorms from developing the last several days, a cold front will approach the region overnight and move through slowly during the afternoon and evening to allow for at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the afternoon and evening storms, but this threat should decrease as the locally heavy rainfall threat increases late in the evening and overnight hours. Confidence in flooding impacts has decreased because of the lack of rainfall the region has received over the last few weeks and model uncertainties, but isolated instances of flash flooding outside of the typical low water crossings, small creeks, and streams may occur for a few spots that could receive 4-5 inches of rain.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Tuesday when a stronger front is forecast to move through the region. The threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall on Sunday is expected to be lower than on Saturday, but locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain could have an increased flash flood threat. Thus, please continue to remain alert over the weekend and into early next week as this period of active weather continues.

Confidence:

Low to Moderate

Additional Information Resources:
NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage: https://www.weather.gov/sanantonio
Storm Prediction Center: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Sincerely,
Larry Hopper, Cory Van Pelt, and Nick Hampshire
NWS Austin / San Antonio

TTR Weather Update for COLORADO, JACKSON, and WHARTON Counties from National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

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A slow moving frontal boundary will move into northern parts of southeast Texas Saturday afternoon. It will eventually stall near the coast Sunday and then meander about the region through Tuesday. This feature combined with a series of upper-level disturbances moving overhead will provide chances of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

Impacts
The majority of computer models are indicating that most locations should receive just beneficial rainfall through the weekend – generally less than 1.5 inches (and even less than that along the beaches). That being said, history has shown that slow moving or stalled boundaries like this during May can sometimes pose a localized heavy rainfall threat that we will need to keep an eye on for potential flash flooding.

Locations
We will begin focusing on areas generally north and northwest of Highway 59 Saturday evening through Sunday morning.  Beyond that, and through Tuesday, forecasts and hazards will be highly dependent where the surface boundary is situated. This likely will be too difficult to forecast with much accuracy beyond 12- 24 hours (and possibly earlier).

Bottom Line
There is considerable forecast uncertainty at this point.  So enjoy your weekend, but keep up with the latest weather forecasts.

Resources
Brian Kyle and Wendy Wong
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX
Twitter: @NWSHouston
Facebook: NWSHouston

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and Friday. Concerns shift to primarily heavy rainfall over the weekend, possibly resulting in flash flooding.

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Area of Concern:

Today/Friday Severe: Along and west of the I-35 corridor.

051817_Z_todaysevere

051817_Z_Fridaysevere
Weekend Heavy Rain: All of South Central Texas.

051817_Z_weekendrain

Threats & Impacts:

Hail:  Up to 2 inches in diameter (Today/Friday)

Winds:  Straight line wind gusts over 60 mph. (Today/Friday)

Rainfall:  1-3 inches with isolated 4-5″ amounts possible. (48 hour rainfall totals from 7AM Saturday – 7AM Monday)

Timing and Overview:

Multiple rounds of active weather are expected today through the weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor this afternoon and evening, Friday morning, and possibly again Friday afternoon. Large hail is the primary concern with the severe weather episodes. However, damaging winds gusts will also be possible.

Saturday, a cold front passage will shift the concern from severe weather to heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding. Heavy rainfall may begin as early as Saturday morning and persist through Sunday evening. Generally, 1-3 inches of rainfall are expected, but isolated amounts of 4-5 inches may occur.

Confidence:

Hail/wind: Low to Moderate
Rainfall this weekend: Moderate

Additional Information Resources:

NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpagehttps://www.weather.gov/sanantonio

Storm Prediction Centerhttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Online Severe Weather Reporting
https://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Sincerely,
Trevor Boucher
NWS Austin / San Antonio